The fallacy of “odds of success”
KeithHandy posted in Business on December 19th, 2006From a dead-on post by Steve Pavlina:
Often such seekers [of success in any arena] will look for a certain statistic to help them assess the risk: What percentage of people who attempted a similar venture actually succeeded to the degree I’d like to experience? For example, if you want to earn $5000/month as a blogger, your question would be, “What percentage of bloggers who try to generate full-time income actually earn $5000/month or more?†Suppose it’s on the order of 1%. You then interpret your odds of success as the same figure.
What does such a statistic have to do with your personal chance of success? Nothing at all.
To me this is like asking, “What are my odds of success in kung fu?†If you’re committed to becoming a black belt in kung fu and are willing to put in the time and training, you’ll probably do just fine. But if you’ve never studied martial arts and are looking for a fast and easy road to success, you’ll be sorely disappointed.
In many fields you only see a 1% success ratio because the other 99% are merely taking up space. They’re just dabblers, not serious contenders. You’ll often see this 1% figure in fields with a low barrier to entry such as blogging, acting, or music. You’ll find a small percentage of people who are really committed to mastery, but the rest have virtually no hope of notable success.
(Emphasis mine.) This is of what I was trying to convince my friends and family 20 years ago. But that’s neither here nor there, since what good would it do me? It’s myself that I need to re-convince of this. I was right about something — yes, teenagers can be — and in a way I’ve actually been too open to disempowering points of view, at least as far as my outward presentation of myself is concerned. Fortunately I haven’t stopped the actual groundwork at any point in my life, though I may keep a lot of it either hidden from view, or just plain too tangled/incomplete/obscure to understand without any background knowledge. What I need to resuscitate are my above-ground aspirations. Come out of the closet, if you will.
Bottom line, it’s not all an odds game. Not by a long shot (er, no pun intended).





